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Strategy research, explained

Public, plain-language explainers on how trading and forecasting strategies are built and evaluated — the math, the assumptions, and the ways they fail.

introSample

What Brier scores tell you about prediction-market forecasts

A sample explainer: how the Brier score measures probabilistic forecast accuracy, how to apply it to prediction-market prices, and what it can't tell you.

#forecasting#prediction-markets#scoring-rules

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